Explaining the Forward Interest Rate Term Structure

We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (frc) term structure. We find that the average frc follows a squareroot law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a Value-at-Risk like pricing. We find a striking correlation between the instantaneous frc and the past spot trend over a certain time horizon. This confirms the idea of an anticipated trend mechanism proposed earlier and provides a natural explanation for the observed shape of the frc volatility. We find that the one-factor Gaussian Heath-Jarrow-Morton model calibrated to the empirical volatility function fails to adequately describe these features.